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Investing - Theory, News & General • Do Bond Funds Really Make Sense for the Long Run?

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Recency Bias is very prevalent in today's bond threads.

Dan
Also prevalent in past ones, and likely prevalent in future ones. There are both conformist ones (move to cash because bonds have been falling hard) and contrarian ones (time to extend duration and load up on long-term bonds).

But there also is a selection bias in what threads are started. If someone believes it is good idea to stay the course with bonds, they probably don't need to start a thread to validate and reinforce their belief.
I think, the past can weigh to heavily on ones shoulders and cause investors to make behavioral errors. I know that I'm guilty of doing this.
OTOH, those who weren't invested in 2008/09 may not appreciate how badly and how quickly stocks can fall. They are prone to overconfidence in their ability to hold equity though thick and thin.

Those who weren't invested in nominal bonds in the 70's or earning an ever shrinking (in real terms) salary may not appreciate how badly inflation can ruin the spending power of one's safely invested stash. The metals in a 1964 quarter are now worth over $4 for example. https://www.coinflation.com/coins/1932- ... Value.html

One ought to educate oneself on the wide range of potential outcomes so they position themselves to cope with the range.
I started investing in 1999. I started with the dotcom bubble, then 9/11, then GFC, and then pandemic. There is always some crisis going on. Best advice here is to stay the course and save more than you think you need.

Statistics: Posted by rockstar — Tue Jan 30, 2024 10:05 am — Replies 356 — Views 26273



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