@ jg12345 thank you for your answers.
1) meaning of 10% decile floor? the minimum estimated?
=> Average ending portfolio of the 10% worst-case scenario run in the simulations, at the end of the time horizon (20 years for the "higher expenses" stage).
2) to be honest with you, for single no kids those expenses seem high in a low cost living area in France, but I don't know your lifestyle
=> This is due to high travel expenses and taxes, that make 58% of total expenses. If I cut travelling, taxes come down as well.
3) can't help
3) can't help
4) also can't help. I am sure there are ways, but not for free I would probably just leave them be. I have UK pension and plan to retire in Eurozone too.
=> Good. If I can transfer pension back to France at mininal cost I would do it though.
5) Another way could be to up the bond part, and use the bond part during stocks downturn so you sell high
=> Good point. Having 75% in equity can look excessive but it increases the probability of portfolio survival, considering my time horizon (20 years until I get public pensions but ultimately 50 years is possible) and capacity to cut expenses.
6) sounds reasonable. usual rule is stocks in ISA, bonds in SIPP, exactly for this reason (expecting bonds to grow less than stocks)
7) I am sure you can! but I doubt it will be tax free. I have an ISA and I live abroad from UK, so you can certainly keep it, but not add money
=> Yes, the goal would be to keep it there with the option to come back in the UK for 6 months at 57. At the time I could: i) be tax resident for one year. ii) transfer the ISA in France free of tax. iii) take out 25% of the pension pot free of tax. This strategy depends on tax laws by then and the cost of living in the UK at that time.
8) not a french retiree
9) seems to me you're good to go financially. My only point is risk of boredom. I see many people FIREing and having a good time but there's also a number of them not enjoying it (see many on Reddit). You certainly have the financial means. but please do consider what you are retiring to, and focus less on what you are retiring from. CoastFIRE is also an option (although admittedly is for those who have less assets than you)
=> That's fair. I understand having a strong purpose and goals are important through life. With regard to your CoastFIRE comment, are you refering to the "4% rule" of withdrawal?
1- your portfolio overweights USA. I would not do that and have 100% in MSCI world or MSCI ACWI
=> Good point.
2- what's the mortgage rate?
=> 19k at 3.1% and 49k at 1.35%.
3- why keep a rental property? I'd never. Unless you enjoy property management and want something to do, I'd sell and invest.
=> Because I would pay taxes on capital gains, it is managed by a real estate agent so it's not time consuming and it diversifies my net worth. Also I could live in it in case I have to sell the other one.
4- any inheritance you need to factor in? at 47 you might have an idea
=> Yes, no kids, my will is in order.
5- you might want to up the bonds %, to no more than 10 years of expenses. it would still be a nice 60-40 I think (and it need not be 10 years, can be 7 years of expenses). in a market downturn, presuming it lasts 10 years, you can use the bonds and not sell a single stock if you have 10 years in bonds.
=> 60-40 is conservative due to the time horizon and capacity to cut the withdrawal rate. With 25% in bonds, gold and cash I cover 5.7 years of expenses with assets less correlated to equity. I could raise the portion to.30% though, I take your point.
Again thank you for your comments.
1) meaning of 10% decile floor? the minimum estimated?
=> Average ending portfolio of the 10% worst-case scenario run in the simulations, at the end of the time horizon (20 years for the "higher expenses" stage).
2) to be honest with you, for single no kids those expenses seem high in a low cost living area in France, but I don't know your lifestyle
=> This is due to high travel expenses and taxes, that make 58% of total expenses. If I cut travelling, taxes come down as well.
3) can't help
3) can't help
4) also can't help. I am sure there are ways, but not for free I would probably just leave them be. I have UK pension and plan to retire in Eurozone too.
=> Good. If I can transfer pension back to France at mininal cost I would do it though.
5) Another way could be to up the bond part, and use the bond part during stocks downturn so you sell high
=> Good point. Having 75% in equity can look excessive but it increases the probability of portfolio survival, considering my time horizon (20 years until I get public pensions but ultimately 50 years is possible) and capacity to cut expenses.
6) sounds reasonable. usual rule is stocks in ISA, bonds in SIPP, exactly for this reason (expecting bonds to grow less than stocks)
7) I am sure you can! but I doubt it will be tax free. I have an ISA and I live abroad from UK, so you can certainly keep it, but not add money
=> Yes, the goal would be to keep it there with the option to come back in the UK for 6 months at 57. At the time I could: i) be tax resident for one year. ii) transfer the ISA in France free of tax. iii) take out 25% of the pension pot free of tax. This strategy depends on tax laws by then and the cost of living in the UK at that time.
8) not a french retiree
9) seems to me you're good to go financially. My only point is risk of boredom. I see many people FIREing and having a good time but there's also a number of them not enjoying it (see many on Reddit). You certainly have the financial means. but please do consider what you are retiring to, and focus less on what you are retiring from. CoastFIRE is also an option (although admittedly is for those who have less assets than you)
=> That's fair. I understand having a strong purpose and goals are important through life. With regard to your CoastFIRE comment, are you refering to the "4% rule" of withdrawal?
1- your portfolio overweights USA. I would not do that and have 100% in MSCI world or MSCI ACWI
=> Good point.
2- what's the mortgage rate?
=> 19k at 3.1% and 49k at 1.35%.
3- why keep a rental property? I'd never. Unless you enjoy property management and want something to do, I'd sell and invest.
=> Because I would pay taxes on capital gains, it is managed by a real estate agent so it's not time consuming and it diversifies my net worth. Also I could live in it in case I have to sell the other one.
4- any inheritance you need to factor in? at 47 you might have an idea
=> Yes, no kids, my will is in order.
5- you might want to up the bonds %, to no more than 10 years of expenses. it would still be a nice 60-40 I think (and it need not be 10 years, can be 7 years of expenses). in a market downturn, presuming it lasts 10 years, you can use the bonds and not sell a single stock if you have 10 years in bonds.
=> 60-40 is conservative due to the time horizon and capacity to cut the withdrawal rate. With 25% in bonds, gold and cash I cover 5.7 years of expenses with assets less correlated to equity. I could raise the portion to.30% though, I take your point.
Again thank you for your comments.
Statistics: Posted by Oceanl — Thu Sep 19, 2024 3:04 am — Replies 2 — Views 228