It technically failed. The SWR was only based on 95% success.No, adjust as you go pretty much works all the time, although some of the adjustments might feel a little drastic!
Adjust as you go works as long as you reach a fairly FatFI number and are only looking to withdrawal for 30 years.
Anyone who isn't adjusting as they go is highly likely to leave a lot of money to heirs at the expense of their own retirement spending. The "safe" withdrawal rate was "safe" even during the worst 30 year periods history could come up with. So when one says they want something even more conservative than that, they're saying that the future will be worse than anything seen in the past. I don't know how those folks invest in equities at all much less bring children into the world. If that were my world view I'd feel like Sara Connor in the Terminator movies. Pessimism sounds smart but the optimists generally make the best investors.
There’s a lot of assumptions baked into past historical SWRs. Rising valuations across all asset classes should be a big red flag that historical SWRs may not be sustainable, or that using US only assets while excluding others is a good default expectation. It’s not pessimism, it’s realism.
I don’t think aiming for 3-3.5% is too conservative at all.
Statistics: Posted by Nathan Drake — Tue Dec 26, 2023 1:21 am — Replies 153 — Views 9986