ALL of us are using some basis for the past to drive allocation decisions. It’s not a flaw, it’s literally all we can doVery silly idea.
Having listened to most of the podcast, he falls into the standard trap of confusing the past and the future. He says this dominates that when he should say this had dominated that.
And he ran 2500 country-year scenarios to reach his conclusion
Many people are analyzing only a SMALL fraction of that. His analysis would be FAR more informative
Statistics: Posted by Nathan Drake — Fri Dec 22, 2023 12:42 am — Replies 27 — Views 1477