I'm afraid luck plays an enormous part in all this... running your situation ($200k now, £36k, inflation linked, per year for 31 years, 100% TSM) using the simba dataset, historically, your final portfolio value (FPV) after 31 years would have ranged (in real terms relative to the start of the accumulation period) from $1.9m (a period starting in 1890) to $11.5m (starting in 1933). That's a factor of 6! For interest, values (in $m) at various percentiles up to the median are given in the following table
I too will echo what others have said, concentrate on what you can control. You can periodically review (perhaps every 5 years or so until the last 10 years) where you are in the run up to retirement. If you end up on a bad sequence, you can a) save more (less effect as you get closer to retirement), b) work longer, c) modify your lifestyle expectations, or d) a combination of all three. If you end up on a good sequence, then you can be happy with your luck.
cheers
StillGoing
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Percentile 0 1 10 25 50FPV: 1.9 2.1 3.4 4.0 5.2cheers
StillGoing
Statistics: Posted by StillGoing — Mon May 27, 2024 1:57 am — Replies 53 — Views 5128