The problem is, people were saying to switch to a shorter duration (because rates had "nowhere to go but up") in 2013, and 2016, and so on. At some point there's a mismatch between the fact that most people have investment timeframes in range of decades but a measly/inverted term premium just doesn't compensate for taking on near-term duration risk unless you also score massive anticorrelation with equities.I completely understand why people are upset about TBM and BND being recommended as 'safe' when we had a quick upward move in rates, but there were definitely people on this board (if you read enough) that switched to short term bond duration when inflation started getting hot and rates had to move up and move up fast (pointed out by many on here). It is because of those people that I had a better understanding of duration risk and moved to ultra short bonds for all my bond holdings. A lot of people would call that market timing, but many people stated that they knew it was market timing but couldn't fathom having medium or longer term duration in bonds going into significant fed tightening. I am thankful that some people shared that advice on this board. I think some of the frustration is because every move that anyone makes that isn't buy and hold is viewed as 'market timing' and that 'nobody knows nothing' and you should never market time.
I understand the dogmatic replies of 'consult your IPS' and 'that sounds like market timing don't do that' but perhaps investing (and life for that matter) is a little more nuanced than that.
Statistics: Posted by Walkure — Tue Feb 06, 2024 12:07 pm — Replies 111 — Views 6914