No idea what G or L income are, but it sounds like your sleep-well-at-night equities allocation is 5%, not 25-30 percent.I'm 5% equities at the moment. Actually my being mostly out was in part a happy circumstance of the TSP's not allowing more than 2 trades per month. I got FOMO (a warning sign of a top if there ever was one) and moved from L Income to L 2025, felt my error and moved back, and then with the first sign of that volatility up and down (which reminded me of the pre dot-com era bust), just went to all G when I did the math and realized that with my gains so far this year plus 3.5 to 4 percent from G for the rest of the year, I'd be way ahead of my goals for the year, with no more downside risk. The Schiller PE at its third highest level in history made the move easier, too.So you're completely out of the market? What number exactly qualifies as the VIX "dying down"?+1if I get a 5% real return this year I'll be happy.
Actually in mid July I already had 5.45 percent gain, with an unreasonable YTD monthly haul that I knew couldn't last, so I pulled out. The Schiller PE also got to the third highest level in history. The volatility around July 17 reminded me of the volatility just prior to the dot-com blowout. I don't advocate doing what I did, but at my age I'm averse to losing money. The funny thing about Buffet's famous rule "don't lose money" is that he doesn't say how. When the VIX dies down I'll go back to my 30 percent equity allocation.
Nevertheless, as I said, I do not recommend what I did. I'll wait for the market to settle down and then move back into L Income. I've proven to myself time and again that 25 to 30 percent equities is my sleep-well-at-night allocation. On the precipice of retirement, I've worked too long and too hard for my money to see years of it evaporate in the inevitable market meltdowns that result from all the easy money that's been creating one bubble after another since the dot-com days.
Statistics: Posted by Godot — Mon Aug 05, 2024 4:51 pm — Replies 123 — Views 8727