That was addressed in a previous post to this topic.So, do you believe that 4% is some immutable law, or that we just don't have enough samples yet to have seen a failure (based on Bengen's allocations)?
I do not know of a statistical distribution of investment returns that is sufficiently accurate for meaningful probabilities to be calculated from it.If you believe the underlying probability really uis 100%, then you are right, ratcheting up would work fine.
That was addressed in another previous post to this topic.But, if you allow for the fact that the actual risk is greater than 0% (however small that may be) then ratcheting certainly will increase that small risk. Might still be acceptable level of risk, but it certainly increases.
Statistics: Posted by FactualFran — Fri Mar 22, 2024 11:26 pm — Replies 77 — Views 5690